Declining Oil Exports
What can explain the 170% increase in oil prices since May 2005, considering that world crude oil production has been on a plateau since that time? Many have debated the timing of the peak in world oil production, but what is critically important to western economies is net petroleum export availability. A rapid projected decline in petroleum available for export, predicted by our model and supported by recent examples in Britain and Indonesia, will have a profound effect on the U.S. economy in the upcoming years and decades. Our model's middle case is that the top five net oil exporters--Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran, and the UAE--will collectively approach zero net oil exports by 2031. (Video Services 03653 505.844.7167) Sand# 2008-4821P.
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